Quantitative Assessment of Emergency Flood Management Protocols in the Lower Euphrates Basin: A Geotechnical and Hydraulic Perspective

Abstract

The management of large-scale dam systems requires the integration of hydraulic control and downstream geotechnical stability. This study evaluates the emergency discharge operations at the Euphrates Dam during the May 2026 high-flow event, where discharge rates reached 800–1000 m³/s following reservoir storage levels exceeding 97%. Using the Manning equation for open channel flow and shear stress analysis (τ = γyS), this research assesses the hydraulic performance and the resulting erosion potential on downstream alluvial banks. Our findings indicate that current operational protocols lack predictive integration with 2D hydraulic simulation, leading to bank instability and significant structural risks. We propose a risk-based, dynamic discharge framework to enhance operational safety and minimize downstream impacts

Keywords: Euphrates Dam; Flood Risk Management; Manning's Equation; Geotechnical Stability; Scouring

Citation

Murad Kara Mustafa. Quantitative Assessment of Emergency Flood Management Protocols in the Lower Euphrates Basin: A Geotechnical and Hydraulic Perspective. WebLog J Earth Sci. wjes.2026.g1103. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21459938